Papers

Dutch Books, Indicative Conditionals, and Rational Updating
Co-authored with Snow Zhang
Proceedings of the 24th Annual Amsterdam Colloquium, 2025
Synopsis: We discuss how you should update your credence in an indicative conditional, when you learn a piece of factual information.
Causal Decision Theory, Context, and Determinism
Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, 2024
Synopsis: I respond to "deterministic" counterexamples to causal decision theory (CDT), by drawing attention to the fact that counterfactuals are context-sensitive.
The Punctuated Equilibrium of Scientific Change: a Bayesian Network Model
Co-authored with Patrick Grim, Frank Seidl, Isabell N. Astor, and Caroline Diaso
Synthese, 2022
Synopsis: We use Bayesian networks to understand how evidence flows through scientific communities.
Scientific Theories as Bayesian Nets: Structure and Evidence Sensitivity
Co-authored with Patrick Grim, Frank Seidl, Hinton E. Rago, Isabell N. Astor, Caroline Diaso, and Peter Ryner
Philosophy of Science, 2022
Synopsis: We show how scientific theories can be modeled as Bayesian networks.

Work in Progress

A paper on the Desire-as-Belief Thesis
R&R (email me for a draft)
Synopsis: I give a context-sensitive version of the Desire-as-Belief Thesis and prove its tenability.
A paper on deference and decision theory
R&R (email me for a draft)
Synopsis: I give some new results concerning causal decision theory and expert deference.
A paper on indicative conditionals and Dutch books
Co-authored with Snow Zhang
under review (email me for a draft)
Synopsis: We discuss how you should update your credence in an indicative conditional, when you learn a piece of factual information. (This is the full version of our paper in the Amsterdam proceedings.)
A paper on self-recommending decision theories
under review (email me for a draft)
Synopsis: I prove that no suppositional decision theory is self-recommending.
A paper on updating on conditionals
in progress (draft available)
Synopsis: I draw out a relationship between van Fraassen's Judy Benjamin Problem and Stalnaker's Thesis.
A paper on decision theory and utilitarianism
in progress (draft available)
Synopsis: I prove a version of Harsanyi's impartial observer theorem.
A paper on epistemic utility and epistemic modality
Co-authored with Mikayla Kelley, Richard Roth, and Snow Zhang
in progress
Synopsis: We investigate what happens to epistemic utility theory when we introduce epistemic modals and indicative conditionals.
A paper on the Off-Switch Game
in progress
Synopsis: I give a generalization of Hadfield-Menell et al.'s (2017) Off-Switch Game, involving suppositional decision theories.
A paper on the Everett interpretation of quantum mechanics
in progress
Synopsis: I prove a new "quantum representation theorem" for the Born rule in Everettian quantum mechanics.
A paper on chance
in progress
Synopsis: I define a new chance-credence principle, in the spirit of Lewis's Principal Principle. Unlike Lewis's principle, however, my principle is consistent with a Humean view of objective chance.
A paper on AI and natural properties
in progress
Synopsis: I argue that recent developments in AI provide us with an empirical argument for the existence of natural properties.